NBA Free Agency...Let’s Speculate!

Before we begin sources have just said that Joe Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks has been offered a six year $119 million contract by the Hawks and he is believed to be ready to sign.

As we know, it is pretty slim pickings this year for the teams with cap space as there are limited free agents out there with any real skills...Oh wait – this is 2010 free agency isn’t it? Well there may be a couple of hidden gems out there – let us look at the players and then see where they could be headed. At the top of the list is Lebron James. Everyone else will wait to see where Lebron signs before they sign so the future of the NBA lies with Lebron. Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, David Lee, Rudy Gay, Shaquille O’Neal, J.J. Redick, and Tyrus Thomas are all free agents (Gay is the only restricted free agent) this summer.

The whole NBA landscape could change. If Lebron stays in Cleveland, not much is happening. Miami and New Jersey will get a whole lot stronger but that is about it. Let us assume Lebron is moving. The teams legitimately in the running for Lebron are in order of chance: Cleveland 30%, Chicago 30%, New Jersey 25%, Miami 10%, New York 5%. We’ll have a look at each of these 5 teams as these are the teams that will have the biggest say over who goes where.

Cleveland has the best chance of keeping Lebron. This is where Lebron’s loyalty lies. This is their best case to keep him. Remind him of his friends and family in Ohio. Not to mention that the Cavs have made deep runs at the playoffs the last few years. New York, New Jersey, Chicago, and Miami have all been mediocre at best the past few years. Cleveland already has a winning mentality. Add to that they are probably going to get a very good coach in Byron Scott and you have a good case to keep Lebron. There are also rumours (among the thousands) that Brendan Haywood may be involved in a double sign and trade involving Shaq, and guards, Allen, John Salmons, and Mike Miller have all been banded about (whether Lebron goes or not). If Lebron is to sign, the word from the Cavs camp is that they will seriously go after Bosh or Stoudemire.

Chicago is a very intriguing option. Chicago have the players in place right now to lure Lebron. With point guard Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah (pictured right), James would have the players in place to make a run at a championship. I honestly believe that he will sign with the Bulls. As much as I want him to go elsewhere (I think he will forever be in Jordan’s shadow with the Bulls, chasing 6 rings etc), I can’t see it. The Bulls have the cash to sign a second tier free agent also (Gay, Boozer, or Pierce) and if Lebron does sign, players will be lining up to sign with the Bulls. The Bulls offer more than the Nets in terms of a sure thing with proven players. If the rumour was true that Phil Jackson was going to coach the Bulls, look out.

The third option for Lebron is the Nets. The Nets have a very good chance to get Lebron thanks to hip-hop superstar Jay-Z. Although their team finished with the worst record in the East, this team has a heap of upside. With young center, Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, rookie Derrick Favors, and Kris Humphries, Lebron would see potential. If Lebron were to sign with the Nets, he would have to have a guarantee from the Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov, and coach Avery Johnson that they were able to sign another marquee free agent (Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh/Amare Stoudemire/Dirk Nowitzki). How about Avery Johnson and Nowitzki being reunited? With a new arena in place, and the lights of New York, New Jersey is the exciting opportunity for Lebron to market himself as a world superstar. Although the chances are slim of him going, this would be the most exciting move he could make.

The fourth option for Lebron is south beach where D-Wade and Pat Riley will be waiting. Apparently Riley and team officials are meeting Amare Stoudemire today in Los Angeles to try and sort something out. If the Heat could convince Stoudemire to come to Miami, then their chances of getting Lebron just increased dramatically. The only realistic chance of Lebron going to Miami is if they can get another star player to join Wade. With the lack of quality at the Heat (with the exception of Wade and Michael Beasley), Lebron will be reluctant to go their. If wade was to get injured, it would be just like Cleveland all over again. I think Miami signs Stoudemire or Boozer. I think Bosh will end up with Lebron either in Cleveland or Chicago.

The final option for Lebron is the New York Knicks. This is far fetched as the Knicks only have there city to sell. They do not have a coach (Mike D’Antoni is great but will his style ever win a championship?), a team or an owner who has shown that they can win a championship. If David Lee stays with the Knicks, they have a small chance, but I just can’t see this happening. The only chance they have is if Lebron really cares more about his image than championships, then Madison Square Garden is the place to be.

So there are Lebron’s options. Okay, so I think he is going to Chicago. What does that mean for everyone else? Bosh goes to Chicago. There is no way Bosh is good enough to win by himself as shown with Toronto, so he goes and plays sidekick to Lebron, with Rose and Noah. Wade stays in Miami (that is pretty much set in stone already). Stoudemire decides to join the second best player in Wade and signs with the Heat. Joe Johnson stays with the Hawks (assuming the rumour at the top is true). I think the Nets go after Boozer and get him. This gives them a great frontcourt of Boozer and Lopez. The Nets also get Rudy Gay. Gay is a very good young player and has tremendous upside. The alternative for the Nets is to go after Nowitzki/Pierce to go with Boozer and try and win now but I think they will try and keep a young nucleus together to build upon. Pierce and Nowiztki stay where they are. Those two aren’t going anywhere, let us not kid ourselves. David Lee is gone – possibly to the Nets, but I think the Hawks might make a run at Lee (the Hawks must have promised Johnson something to get him to stay when the possibility of playing with Lebron/Wade was on the cards). And the Nets/Heat/Knicks pick up the rest in J.J Redick, Ray Allen, Tyrus Thomas and Shaq. All four of those players would be very useful contributors in a deep team.

So there you have it, Lebron/Bosh in Chicago, Wade/Stoudemire in Miami, Boozer/Gay in New Jersey and Johnson stays put. A pretty interesting NBA next year I reckon? With all these changes, I guess it's the Sixers who go into next season as favourites then?